Ocean View projects tighter finances as enrollment drops
The district has lost nearly 23 percent of enrollment since 2016-17 and faces deficit spending in the near term, staff told trustees.
Ocean View School District has lost nearly 23 percent of its enrollment since the 2016-17 school year and projects a further decline of about 186 students for 2026-27, staff told the Board of Trustees on June 9. The projected decline would mean roughly $2.5 million less in funding, Assistant Superintendent and Chief Business Official Keith Pharaoh told trustees.
"Since 2016-17, Ocean View School District enrollment has declined by nearly 23 percent," Pharaoh said. He estimated the further decline of about 186 students for 2026-27, saying the outgoing eighth-grade cohort outpaces incoming kindergarteners.
District staff presented a preliminary 2026-27 budget that shows continued fiscal pressure as enrollment declines and contributions to restricted programs remain necessary. Staff presented a multi-year projection and cautioned that salary settlements and final state budget action could change outcomes.
Pharaoh walked trustees through budget assumptions, including a May revision that raised the 2026-27 cost-of-living adjustment to about 4.31 percent, along with program contributions and the multi-year projection. The projection shows deficit spending in the near term unless revenue or program contributions change.
He warned that tentative labor agreements and any negotiated salary increases would materially affect the projection. "A 3 percent salary increase would increase deficit spending across the projection period and reduce the ending fund balance by more than half," he said.
Trustees and the superintendent discussed causes for the enrollment decline and local pressures. Several board members pointed to housing affordability and broader demographic trends as primary drivers. One trustee also raised concerns about immigration-related effects on enrollment in neighborhoods with high immigrant populations. Trustees praised staff for conservative planning and noted the district's effort to preserve program stability.
The enrollment decline has been steady: nearly 23 percent over the decade since 2016-17, with staff projecting the trend to continue into 2026-27 as the outgoing eighth-grade cohort outpaces incoming kindergarteners.
In September, the board unanimously approved a tentative 2026-27 collective bargaining agreement with the Ocean View Teachers Association, the kind of labor deal Pharaoh had warned would materially affect the projection. No members of the public spoke at the June hearing on the preliminary budget.
The district presented the budget with a "positive" certification but said it may return with updates after the state budget is finalized. The board opened and closed a public hearing on the preliminary budget with no public speakers. The district will bring the 2026-27 budget back for final adoption at a future meeting after the state budget is signed and as negotiations or other assumptions change.
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